Community
17 April, 2026
More dry weather predicted
THE Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has forecast a return of hot and dry El Nino conditions later in the year, with farmers expressing concerns about another dry season ahead.
El Nino refers to a weather system where sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern areas of the Pacific Ocean become warmer than average, resulting in reduced rainfall, warmer temperatures and increased fire danger in south east Australia, including the Corangamite Shire.
Sea surface temperatures through February were the 10th warmest on record, with all models pointing to continual warming over the coming months.
Neutral conditions are expected through to late autumn before warming to levels consistent with El Nino conditions through winter – however, BoM also notes some models predict the conditions could form as early as May.
BoM’s long-range forecast over the south west predicts a less than 35 per cent chance of exceeding the median rainfall.
Corangamite Shire Council Mt Elephant Ward councillor and sheep farmer Nick Cole said farmers were not needing this news, since the area is already experiencing dry conditions.
“We’ve got a real lack of surface water in dams, creeks are low, bores are low and underground water streams are low,” he said.
“It’s going to be fairly diabolical if it continues on.
“We do need a good, soaking rain to fill up damns and bores – if we keep getting drizzly rain, it’ll make for a good season, but we still need that rain to get us by.
“This year’s been an okay start, much better than last year.
“We don’t ever want to see another start like last year – that was a shocker.”
Cr Cole said crops and livestock have fared well in the recent season, with sufficient rainfall towards the end of last year and destocking in the region contributing to the good tonnage of crops.
Many residents have likely seen the green grass in paddocks as well as along the sides of the road thanks to ongoing bursts of rainfall, but more is needed to ensure pasture remains and livestock receive the water they need.
Cr Cole said the State Government had been slow to identify the drought in the region, with a desalination plant activated in recent months as water storage levels in Geelong remain low.
“The government seem to be very slow on supporting agriculture,” he said.
“They’re not proactive, they’re reactive and even when they’re reactive, they’re very slow.
“They wouldn’t call it a drought for a very long time – begrudgingly, they called it a drought.
“They’re just not on the front foot – always behind.”
Cr Cole said the biggest concern for the Corangamite Shire was dairy farmers, which make up much of the agricultural industry in the northern area of the shire, as cattle require large amounts of water to survive.
“We’re mainly sheep here – sheep will get through because they get enough moisture off the grass in the morning with the morning dews and things like that to get them through,” he said.
“Cattle and dairy farmers are the ones that are going to struggle because they need good water to keep going.
“It’s going to be very hard if we get it – I kind of hope we don’t.
“The cheapest feed we get is in the paddocks, and you don’t want to be buying it in or buying water in – that’s why we have dams.
“You can’t buy water in for cattle – it’s virtually impossible because they drink so much you’ll nearly need your own fleet of trucks to haul it in.”
Also speaking as a councillor, Cr Cole said the drought conditions have had an impact on the community.
“It puts strain on ratepaying farmers because they’ve got to buy feed and water in and that’s less money going around the community,” he said.
“If farmers are making a buck, they’ll spend it in the community and it flows through the whole area – it isn’t just in Corangamite, it’s everywhere.
“If we’ve got all these imposts against us, where you’ve got huge expenses and just containing things, it’s not a good thing.
“It’ll make a real strain on the shire – everyone in the shire is strained with the cost of living, interest rates and oil.
“There’s already a cost of living squeeze, so getting another dry time is not going to be a good time for anyone.”
Cr Cole said the ongoing dry period will have a rolling impact right across the shire.
“Apparently, the tourism’s down a fair bit in a few spots – anecdotally, people aren’t travelling as much so none of that helps the situation because people aren’t buying coffee in town,” he said.
“When you get this drought going on, it won’t be good.
“We live in hope they got it wrong.”